Petrutza Caragea
Iowa State University
Department of Statistics

Modeling Space Weather Relationships using Multiscale Dynamic Linear Models

Relationships exist between radiation belt electron flux intensities and solar drivers, such as solar wind speed, ion density and magnetic fields. However, the particulars of these relationships are not yet well understood. This talk will present an approach to modeling a few of these relationships using dynamic linear models (DLMs). In particular, we propose an extension of the DLMs that is interpretable, flexible, and can coherently combine multiple scales of information in a principled and unified framework (this is most important when considering variables that are available at different temporal resolutions). I will present a Multiscale Dynamic Linear Model within the theoretical framework of directed graphical model formalism, and discuss estimation and results for the space weather project, as well as extensions and further questions to be addressed.

Refreshments at 3:45pm in Snedecor 2101.